Fri, 11 Sep
NOAA day · UTC
| Interval · UTC+3 | Forecast Kp |
|---|---|
| 11 Sep 03:00–06:00 | 2.00 |
| 11 Sep 06:00–09:00 | 2.33 |
| 11 Sep 09:00–12:00 | 2.00 |
| 11 Sep 12:00–15:00 | 2.00 |
| 11 Sep 15:00–18:00 | 2.33 |
| 11 Sep 18:00–21:00 | 2.67 |
| 11 Sep 21:00–00:00 | 2.67 |
| 12 Sep 00:00–03:00 | 3.00 |
LOOK NORTH. LOOK UP.
Aurora forecast
Murmansk & Teriberka
A little planning. A sky full of possibility.
FIND A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
How clear is the sky?
Hourly cloud cover · Moscow time (UTC+3)
18:00–06:00 MSK
Loading the cloud forecast…
Lower % means less cloud, not an aurora probability. Darkness and aurora activity still matter.
About this forecast
Forecast total cloud cover for the selected location, rounded to whole percentages. Tonight shows upcoming hours within 18:00–06:00 Moscow time; after midnight it continues the same night. This is a planning window, not a prediction of darkness. Conditions can vary along the route. Weather data: MET Norway, CC BY 4.0.
3-day forecast
3-hour Kp intervalsNOAA · 2026 Sep 11 0040 UTC · saved forecast
Sat, 12 Sep
NOAA day · UTC
| Interval · UTC+3 | Forecast Kp |
|---|---|
| 12 Sep 03:00–06:00 | 2.33 |
| 12 Sep 06:00–09:00 | 2.67 |
| 12 Sep 09:00–12:00 | 2.67 |
| 12 Sep 12:00–15:00 | 2.33 |
| 12 Sep 15:00–18:00 | 1.33 |
| 12 Sep 18:00–21:00 | 1.00 |
| 12 Sep 21:00–00:00 | 2.00 |
| 13 Sep 00:00–03:00 | 2.33 |
Sun, 13 Sep
NOAA day · UTC
| Interval · UTC+3 | Forecast Kp |
|---|---|
| 13 Sep 03:00–06:00 | 2.33 |
| 13 Sep 06:00–09:00 | 2.00 |
| 13 Sep 09:00–12:00 | 2.33 |
| 13 Sep 12:00–15:00 | 2.33 |
| 13 Sep 15:00–18:00 | 2.33 |
| 13 Sep 18:00–21:00 | 2.33 |
| 13 Sep 21:00–00:00 | 2.67 |
| 14 Sep 00:00–03:00 | 2.67 |
How to read this forecast
Kp measures geomagnetic activity, not the chance of seeing an aurora. All values are forecasts from the stated NOAA bulletin, normally issued twice daily.
Cards follow NOAA’s UTC dates. Intervals use Murmansk time (UTC+3); +1 day marks a time after midnight on the next date.
Earlier intervals are dimmed. They are not replaced with observations.
CHASE THE LIGHTS WITH VISIT TERIBERKA
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Head beyond the city lights with our local team. We choose the route around the forecast and cloud cover.
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Aurora right now
The auroral oval and four key indicators: solar wind speed, Bz, Kp and hemispheric power. They help assess near-term activity, but do not account for cloud cover or darkness.
Where the aurora may be brighter
The OVATION short-term forecast usually looks 30–90 minutes ahead. A brighter, broader oval indicates stronger auroral activity. Forecast lead time can vary.
NOAA map · valid time is printed on the imageSolar wind over 24 hours
Higher solar wind speed and sustained negative Bz can support stronger auroral activity. They do not guarantee a visible display.
Latest wind speed—Loading latest NOAA data…
Latest Bz—Loading latest NOAA data…
Wind speed, km/spast 24 hours
Loading observations…
Bz, nTbelow zero is more favourable
Loading observations…
How to read it: look for rising speed together with Bz staying below zero over several readings, rather than a single spike.
Times: Murmansk (UTC+3). Each indicator shows its own timestamp.
Estimated Kp
NOAA’s estimate of global geomagnetic activity from recent observations, rather than the long-range outlook.
Latest Kp—Loading latest NOAA data…
Kp, scale 0–9recent hours
Loading observations…
For Murmansk: aurora can be visible even at lower Kp because the city is close to the auroral oval. Rising Kp generally indicates a wider region of geomagnetic activity.
Auroral hemispheric power
Estimated power deposited in the northern auroral oval, from NOAA’s OVATION model.
Northern Hemisphere—Loading latest NOAA data…
Power, GWavailable model history
Loading observations…
How to read it: follow the trend. A sustained increase means greater total auroral power; local visibility still depends on the oval’s position and the weather.
27-day aurora outlook
NOAA issue: 2026 Sep 07 0224 UTC. Predicted daily maximum Kp; UTC dates. Updating from the same NOAA source as the Russian page.
07 Sep
4.0
08 Sep
5.0
09 Sep
3.0
10 Sep
2.0
11 Sep
2.0
12 Sep
2.0
13 Sep
2.0
14 Sep
4.0
15 Sep
4.0
16 Sep
4.0
17 Sep
2.0
18 Sep
2.0
19 Sep
2.0
20 Sep
2.0
21 Sep
2.0
22 Sep
2.0
23 Sep
2.0
24 Sep
5.0
25 Sep
5.0
26 Sep
5.0
27 Sep
4.0
28 Sep
2.0
29 Sep
2.0
30 Sep
2.0
01 Oct
2.0
02 Oct
2.0
03 Oct
2.0
What does the chart mean?
The bars show NOAA’s predicted daily maximum Kp, from 0 to 9. This is global geomagnetic activity, not your chance of seeing an aurora.
Use this weekly outlook for broad planning. For your evening, check clouds and the live conditions above.
Three things to look for:
Clear skies
Geomagnetic activity
Away from city lights
Under the Arctic sky
A glimpse of the northern lights from our photo library. Every night is different.
View the outlook as a data table
| Date (UTC) | Daily maximum Kp |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | 4.0 |
| 2026-09-08 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-09 | 3.0 |
| 2026-09-10 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-11 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-12 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-14 | 4.0 |
| 2026-09-15 | 4.0 |
| 2026-09-16 | 4.0 |
| 2026-09-17 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-18 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-19 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-21 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-22 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-23 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-25 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-26 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 4.0 |
| 2026-09-28 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-29 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-30 | 2.0 |
| 2026-10-01 | 2.0 |
| 2026-10-02 | 2.0 |
| 2026-10-03 | 2.0 |
Read the forecast in 30 seconds
Start with conditions on the ground, then check activity in space.
1. Darkness & cloudsEven strong aurora can be hidden by daylight or thick cloud.
2. OVATION mapCheck the forecast oval’s position relative to the Kola Peninsula and the map’s valid time.
3. Wind speed & BzHigher wind speed with sustained negative Bz can favour energy transfer into the magnetosphere.
4. Kp & powerRising Kp and hemispheric power can indicate increasing geomagnetic and auroral activity.
Consider several factors together. No single indicator guarantees a visible aurora.
Aurora forecast questions
What Kp do I need to see aurora in Murmansk?
There is no fixed threshold. Murmansk is close to the auroral oval, so aurora can be visible at lower Kp. Check the OVATION map, Bz, hemispheric power, darkness and cloud cover together.
How far ahead can I use the forecast?
OVATION usually provides a short-term guide around 30–90 minutes ahead, though the lead time can vary. The 27-day outlook is a broad planning guide and cannot predict visibility on a particular evening.
Why might I see no aurora when Kp is high?
Cloud, polar daylight, light pollution or the oval’s position may prevent a sighting. Kp describes global geomagnetic activity, not the sky above a particular location.
Which matters more: Kp or Bz?
They describe different things. Kp reflects global geomagnetic activity; sustained negative Bz can favour coupling between the solar wind and Earth’s magnetic field. Read them together.
See the Arctic night for yourself
Ask about an aurora-hunting outing for your dates. Sightings depend on conditions.